Brexit

Discussion in 'Unrelated Discussion' started by proeleert, May 9, 2016.

  1. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    I just want to point out that being a United States of Europe doesn't have to be a bad thing. (whereas most seem to see it as the ultimate evil overlord)

    Should the time come (and recent events suggest that it's far, far off) that we join in an United States, write a new referendum on that and make it about that. This referendum is about staying or going, not about joining a hypothetical United States of Europe.

    The United States concept is not something all nations endorse. If the UK is in, that means one more US-E opponent. When in the EU, the UK can change it. Outside the EU, it has nigh-zero influence on what the rest of Europe does.

    Turkey most definitely has tried, but failed to meet requirements. Recent events with the Ukraine have made it clear that Putin doesn't like this expansion and will have major geopolitical consequences we may not want. Recent events with Greece has shown that this expansionism wasn't always in our best interest and that reason lost out to the potential gain.

    Either way, it's clear that blatantly expanding has a price. Similarly, recent crises showed that the union has it's price. We most definitely can't half-*** a USE.

    A USE may not even turn out to be in our best interest, but so far the EU is a unique political structure, and nobody's ever done anything like this. So sometimes we succeed and sometimes we fail.
    tunsel11 likes this.
  2. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    I'm afraid that is not likely to be the case. We signed up to the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007 which has a "ratchet clause". This steadily increases the power that the EU can exert on member states without triggering referenda.

    I'm not saying that it is, necessarily. Some people would prefer that, and for them a Remain vote is the logical choice. Personally I will never feel any emotional attachment to the blue flag with the ring of stars, and I will never feel any warmth in my heart when I hear "Ode to Joy" being played. They just don't mean anything to me, and will never be able to replace the Union Jack, "God Save the Queen", "I Vow to Thee, My Country", "Nimrod", "Land of Hope and Glory", or the other myriad of powerful patriotic British songs.

    Please see my above comment about the ratchet clause. We will not be offered another referendum on this.
  3. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    I fundamentally disagree with you on the first point. Being proud of your country is not a bad thing. You can be proud of your country without believing that others are somehow inferior.

    Your second point, I feel, is a deliberately provocative misinterpretation of what this debate is all about. We have a long history from which we can draw much pride. The Magna Carta, to my knowledge, is the oldest bill of rights anywhere in the world. That doesn't mean I want us to return to 1215.
  4. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    My advice to you then is to stop reading whatever it is you're reading that is making that argument - because it's rubbish.

    My personal stance is this: no-one in the Remain camp can bring themselves to say that the EU is a great thing. David Cameron says that he gets incredibly frustrated with the whole thing, but that we must "push for reform".

    We've been pushing for reform for at least 20 years. It hasn't happened yet. If anything, it's got worse - more bureaucratic, more authoritarian, more cumbersome and more imposing. The definition of insanity, so it's said, is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Perhaps something more decisive will get the EU's top brass to collectively pull their thumbs out of their arses and get on with actually becoming an organisation that people can have a modicum of faith in.
  5. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    Not bad, but unnecessary. The EU has not done a single thing that could not have been done and agreed upon by sovereign, national governments at their own behest.

    I'd not call the monthly travelling circus between Brussels and Strasbourg that costs hundreds of millions a year efficient, personally. That's just one example of many.

    EDIT: Also this is a good illustration of how EU regulation has got completely out of hand:

  6. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    That's not correct. Once we leave, only the 5% of British businesses that export to the EU must comply with its regulations - and even then this would only apply to the goods themselves, not to their working practices. Likewise, any UK businesses exporting to the USA must produce products that comply with US regulation.

    The EU and the Euro has been directly responsible for the severity of the Greek crisis. I can't think of a greater example of division in Europe than that. The Greeks hate the Germans, and the EU-led Troika that is imposing demeaning conditions on the supposedly anti-austerity Greek government in order to secure bailout loans.
  7. cola_colin

    cola_colin Moderator Alumni

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    Only 5% businesses export from UK to EU? Really? And how much % of all your exports is that supposed to be?
    5% sounds really low, considering the EU is basically your direct neighbor.
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  8. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    @cwarner7264 one thing worries me about your arguments... your notion of 'vote with your heart' and terms like 'feel' in relation to such an important decision. This is how extremism (of any kind) is justified, and to my mind translates to 'lets put logic and reason to one side for a bit...'

    Any very big, important decision, must in my opinion be based on facts and logical arguments. That isn't to say that there aren't any such arguments in support of Brexit, but 'vote with your heart' is the absolutely worst argument I can think of. I agree, most pro EU people (like myself) are quick to acknowledge, it is by no means a perfect system.

    I mean I think carefully about what negative and positive political influences have had on my life over the years. Most of the things I'm most uncomfortable about have come from OUR government, not the EU. The proliferation of CCTV, the fact that average speed cameras are currently being installed down the ENTIRE motorway network (every time any roadworks are done, lo and behold up go new gantries complete with speed cameras), the massive clamp down on the Internet in the UK (did you know large swathes of overseas medical websites are blocked because they have information which goes against the current NHS guidance? Of course it's all in the name of 'protecting children from porn' however...). These things that really tick me off are all at the behest of successive UK governments, in fact in a couple of instances the EU have reigned them in (the improvements to working conditions for shift / temp workers was very unpopular but I think a big improvement for the rights of individuals for example).

    My biggest issue with Brexit is it's all being done for the wrong reasons, and I'm genuinely concerned at the prospects of what the government will look like should the exit campaign succeed. There's a very real risk that many MP's on the remain side will get ousted if they loose, we could wind up with a cabinet that looks more like the BNP than the Conservative party.
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  9. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    @cola_colin the source for the 5% is here: http://forbritain.org/britishoption.pdf

    from which: "In order to try to provide a more robust figure, Business for Britain extrapolated data from EC sales lists, so that we can estimate the number of companies that provide services as well as goods to the EU. Our percentages likely constitute an “upper limit”, providing a higher estimate than the actual number of companies that export to the EU. It is clear that at no point in the last seven years did more than 5 per cent of British companies export goods or services to the EU."

    That figure is direct from the EU's own institutions.

    As a percentage of total trade:

    https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-uks-exports-go-europe/

    Note that the article mentions the Rotterdam / Antwerp effect, which greatly exaggerates exports for goods that travel via Amsterdam or Rotterdam, two of Europe's main shipping hubs.

    @tunsel11 the primary cause of the Greek crisis was their own economic mismanagement. But what should have happened was that the Drachma plummeted in value, causing Greek exports and tourism to boom and helping to stabilise things. This can't happen while it is shackled to the Euro.

    We won't lose anyone. We will have a fair, points-based immigration system where we can bring in people to fill skill gaps. People already working here legally cann't be kicked out retrospectively.
  10. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    I get what you're saying. Don't worry, I have facts and figures coming out of my ears in support of Brexit. In this thread, I'm responding to the arguments made against Brexit, most of which have been subjective, so I've responded subjectively in kind.

    My reasons are primarily for accountability and democracy. I believe that our laws should be made at a level where we have a degree of control over them. We just don't have that at an EU level. Commissioners are not accountable in any way, shape or form to the public, and they are the ones with the sole right to propose legislation. That is my primary motivation in all of this.
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  11. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    I can see that argument- my problem is we don't really get much of a say in most of our own laws (who honestly voted 'yeah lets be watched24/7 and open ourselves up for being severely punished for minor offences / honest mistakes whilst murder gets you less of a jail term than not paying your council tax')...

    I don't feel like I have any say in UK politics beyond deciding which banner hangs over parliament. The two main parties have essentially followed the same path for the most part. No policy I actually cared about has ever been implemented- in fact my honest wish would be to (as far as possible) STOP them passing any more laws and interfering even more than they already do. Every announcement they are eroding another freedom- it never seems to go the other way. The EU, along with the house of lords and the royal family all act as a bit of a balance to prevent our elected mp's running off and doing something truly horrifying. Our system is pretty undemocratic when you look closely at it, although when you look at the USA (which on a technical level is better) it looks more corrupt and ineffective than what we have. I can't see Brexit improving things sadly.
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  12. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    I've taken the time to spell it out multiple times throughout this thread. There are a lot of objective arguments for leaving the EU. Please do take the time to read through them.

    A lot of the counter-arguments to Brexit are based on supposition. For example your statement that manufacturers "WILL" relocate (rather than "may"). As it happens, the EU paid Ford to relocate their manufacturing from the UK to Turkey while we've been members in any case, so I don't really buy into that argument.
  13. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    Well not long I guess until we find out.... I doubt either of us will change anyone's minds, especially on an internet forum :p

    One thing I know for certain- stay or leave, people are going to be dissecting the outcome (and probably wishing we did the opposite of whatever happens) for years to come. It'll keep lots of academics busy if nothing else :p
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  14. gmase

    gmase Well-Known Member

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    Well I didn't have an opinion about this but you have convinced me that leaving is the best thing for you Brits. Very few systems go from bad to good little by little.

    The EU is an undemocratic expensive layer over an already fat rotten onion.

    Anyway I'm from Spain so I don't vote.
    cwarner7264 likes this.
  15. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    There's always one...
  16. Clopse

    Clopse Post Master General

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    The EU gave ford an 80 million loan to increase production in their already profitable Turkey factory. Still seems harsh but smart move from ford. Quick research found they make the transit there for 4000 pound as opposed to 7000 pound in the UK factory. That plus the location is a no brainer for Ford so I'd argue inevitable with or without the loan.

    I'm curious to see how this pans out. I reckon you will vote to leave and unsure how that will change things. I'm sure the UK will easily set up trade pacts, working without visas, retirement with other EU nations similar to those of Norway. I do imagine a backlash from the EU to dissuade other nations from doing this but to what extent I'm not sure.
  17. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    Remind me of who wrote out this referendum. Remind me of how it got to pass.

    If the time comes, the same sentiment will ensure a new referendum exists. (if needed, that is. Maybe in 50-ish years the public opinion will be different)
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  18. gmase

    gmase Well-Known Member

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    You do write arguments to support your opinion...
    People in my country care little about our presidential election and much less about EU elections so they are all clear to earn their nice salaries and do as they please. If you want a dictatorship that controls your country politicians it's OK, but get rid first of the democratic theatre so we can save some money.
  19. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    @gmase It makes me genuinely happy to know that I've not been typing in this thread in vain. In all the arguments I've made in many places, and in many forms throughout this campaign, I've said that if I can convince even one extra person to support the Leave vote, then I've been successful.

    So far, by my tally, at least 50 people have confirmed to me that they will be voting to Leave based on conversations, text, statistics or something else that I've shoved in front of them. I'm hoping there are many more who have been convinced but haven't voiced their conviction to me.

    @clopse again I'm glad to note that you've not swallowed some of the scare stories being put about in all of this. At the end of the day, everyone benefits if we all work together, and I don't think for a moment that the EU would cut off its nose to spite its face over a Brexit. The Eurozone is in enough of a crisis as it is without going out of their way to make things worse.

    @Devak this referendum came about because of pressure on the Conservative party from UKIP. That pressure will be massively diluted by the fact that we have now had a referendum on the matter. However, I have some serious reservations about how this referendum has been conducted - I plan to write out a fairly lengthy post on Facebook about the campaign and I'll copy & paste it here if people are interested enough to read it.
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  20. Gorbles

    Gorbles Post Master General

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    If only it was actually a dictatorship that controlled our politicians.

    Sadly, that's a clickbait-level title given that our politicians are wholly-capable of wrecking our country, as they have done, by themselves.

    EDIT

    Y'know, the kind of tabloid nonsense the Sun puts out, and goons like Farage repeat like it's some kind of holy truth?

    When did people start taking these horrendous attempts at newspapers seriously?

    I disagree with the Telegraph's agenda a lot, but at least it had a modicum of standards when it comes to reporting.
    Last edited: June 21, 2016

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