Thank you. Now that I have you undivided attention, please check out this video about climate change: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuj_tlRRQdQ It's only ten minutes and very entertaining imo. That is what I call PWNED... :lol:
Great video, Do you think he was trolling her or was telling the truth. Gears of war is overrated, The campaign is good for one play through and the multi-player is pretty bad.
Well, first of all before I answer that question let me tell you that I'm not an expert. While I have a background in physics, study engineering and communication science and know a thing or two about how to 'improve' the presentation of data to fit a certain goal, I'm not an expert in environmental questions. But I'm also not biased and willing to keep an open mind about the question and not on the payroll of any of the interest groups. So I did what he suggested and found the data site of the University of Illinois: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ Let us take a look at a dataset that from the northern hemisphere that seem to confirm that the ice caps are melting (aka the Greenpeace side): http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... 0-2007.jpg I highlighted the important curve for you: If you take a look at the graph till 2005 there is only one conclusion: ZOMG, build an ark NOAW! But what is that tiny bit at the end of the curve? Is the sea ice extend actually growing in summer? It could be an anomaly. There is not enough data to be sure. Next data set, again only northern hemisphere: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... arctic.png Until 2008: OMG, we are all gonna DIE! 2008 to 2010: Erm, again, it seems to be recovering. So far I'm not convinced enough that the ice is melting to grow a pair of fins. Until 2008 there seemed to be a clear trend and it looked really bad. But in the last two years... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Okay, so what happens if we include the Antarctic? That's what the man suggested after all. And it makes sense to look at the complete picture since it is called GLOBAL warming, not northern hemisphere warming, right? http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... htrend.jpg WTF, there has been no significant change in the global ice area whatsoever! Look at the red graph at the bottom, it's basically a straight line! The guy was right! TL;DR (conclusion): It looks like the polar ice caps have been doing just fine during the last 30 years. Yes, Greenpeace lied to you. They took the data from the Arctic that seemed to fit their theory of the ice caps melting but if you look at the complete picture there was hardly any change in the last 30 years. All the ice that melted in the Arctic was replaced by ice in the Antarctic. Should you sell our hybrid and buy a Hummer instead, build that 30m walk-in fridge you always wanted and crank up the AC right next to an open window? No you shouldn't. While Greenpeace has their own agenda and will lie to you when it helps their purpose one thing is true and will remain true: Oil is a finite resource! It is much too valuable as a base for plastics and other chemical products to burn it for heat. The next generations will need it and we would be wise to use solar power, wind and water energy and minimize our dependency on oil. And we should try to make cars cleaner because the unburned carbons are bad for your health. So yes, keep your hybrid car and feel good about it and don't crank up the AC all the way in summer because you might catch a cold. You will save some money too... PS: Again, I'm not an environment expert but I do have a background in physics and I know how to interpret empirical data. And there is no doubt in my mind that the ice caps have not been melting in the last 30 years.
Well, I'm not done yet. Remember what he said about the landfalling hurricanes? There has been no increase in the number of landfalling hurricanes in the past 150 year, that's what he said. That seems to be oddly specific, why only take a look at landfalling hurricanes? Okay, they are the ones doing the damage (poor old New Orleans!) but for a environmental study I want to look at the complete set of data! All Atlantic storms I can get my hands on. Because I'm paranoid and don't trust him any more than Greenpeace... So lets take a look at the raw data: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html I plotted a chart, you can't see sh!t in a table of that size... First attempt, raw data, graphs not smoothed: eye cancer: http://i41.tinypic.com/24pb15g.jpg Play it again Sam, this time with a slight smoothing: Much better, now I have a baseline that I can work with. The dotted graphs show the average from 1968 to 2008. Now there seems to be a slight increase but that is within a certain margin of error. Interesting is that the number of 'named storms' has increased significantly since 1930. OMG, we will all DIE HORRIBLY! Or maybe not? Might that have something to do with the fact that people have newspapers, radio and now TV and bad weather makes for good headlines? Hmm... If you take the "ACE" (Accumilated Cyclone Energy - An index that combines the numbers of systems, how long they existed and how intense they became.) and you check the graph: Hmm, there has been an increase in the last 15 years but I would not call it a trend and if you go farther back it might be just a temporary bumb. I would call it inconclusive for now. We don't have enough data to see a clear trend yet. Ask me again in 50 years...
Yup, he's right. Even if we would raise the average temperature of the planet by 10 or even 20 we will harm ourself and other highly evolved and specialized species. Earth has seen far worse in the past and mass extinction is a recurring theme in the global history. Without it we would probably still be rat sized rodents avoiding the large predators, running for our little lives and hiding in dark places. Future generations might even be forced to create an artificial greenhouse effect to survive a coming ice age. We can just try to keep our own involvement in global events very small for now and hope for the best. Spending money on climate models seems like a good idea though, we might need them one day to survive.
