Discussion in 'Unrelated Discussion' started by stuart98, November 11, 2015.
Same reason why most of what you hear from Donald Trump is bad I would assume.
Supposedly, now that most of the more conservative states (South, some of the Midwest) have gone, he should pick up better victories and closer defeats. I've read that if he pulls about 58% of the delegates, he'll have more than Hillary, not including super delegates, which will flip to whoever is more likely to win, I imagine.
I've also read that Trump is supposed to start performing a bit worse, but he still has a strong chance of winning.
I was actually thinking the same thing! That maybe democrats in the south prefer Hillary? Though actually Hillary is only winning by a little when talking about Delegates. She's winning by a landslide with super Delegates though.
looks even between hillary and bernie to me
Here are the actual current delegate numbers drawn up. Bernie is far behind even if you don't bother with super delegates. Hilary is winning by a boatload no matter how you look at it.
I have liked Bernie more the more I see of him. But he's lost. My hope is that Hilary offers him the VP spot again and this time he accepts.
:'( bernie's the best chance america was ever given and america's never ever ever ever going to get another one like that ever again....
He isn't far behind without counting super delagates? Only about 200. Definitely recoverable.
The wiki post tatsu brought up actually used your website as a source btw.
Though I'm not sure how Super Delagates work/ whether or not Bernie can bring in Super Delagates in the future.
1119 - 813 = 306. That's much more than 200. And New York hasn't happened yet. A big state that Hilary was senator of.
Bernie has lost.
Let's dispel with this fiction that the democratic race is over.
This is a somewhat conservative estimate of the upcoming states:
I find a couple of those projections surprising, considering that Hilary was a New York Senator, Bloomberg(former NYC mayor) spoke out against Bernie, and that PA loved Bill.
I'm not sure what poll numbers to look at or believe, so I can't mount a proper argument against it.
I still don't think Bernie will win, but that's mostly my gut talking at this point since I've been shown a feasible possibility of him winning.
Bernie is much better than Hillary.
That's mostly my intuition talking and there's some weird stuff in here. Here's another path that has him not doing ridiculously well in California and losing New York by bigger margins but winning by bigger margins in other states: http://DemRace.com/?share=EzCxgbDK
This is probably the most Hillary it could get: http://DemRace.com/?share=IpksrXYw
And this is the most Bernie it could possibly get: http://DemRace.com/?share=mXPEr8QH
Both extremes are extremely unlikely.
Here's a race that's still got Hillary with a very strong lead, showing how much of this is margins based: http://DemRace.com/?share=EktLye2y
There are no winner take all states on the Democratic side, so not only does Sanders have to win almost every state, he needs big margins.
Your spreads are fairly off from the poll results I've seen. Even your Hilary spread has her winning by a lower margin than poll results would indicate. I don't see Sanders getting PA or NY, and they're two of the biggest states left(CA being the biggest).
Real Clear PA
Real Clear NY
PA and NY are both big, and both lean heavily Hilary. Much more heavily than the predictions you're putting in.
EDIT: Busted Links
I think that the projects aren't very good for this race. Bernie is hard to gauge because he's appealing to people that usually aren't appealed to (farther left than usual races). For example, he destroyed in MI, even though the polls showed him much lower, and apparently there was a poll of Utah that had Hillary leading, and he took that by 50-something percent. As time goes on, he gets more popular. Whether that appeals to the larger states such as NY and PA, and CA, I'm not sure. Hillary is very moderate, even somewhat conservative (which she started as, after all), so she has a strong appeal to almost all voters, even moderate republicans, which can earn her votes Bernie has a slim chance to earn (conservatives voting for a socialist is a bit far fetched).
Even if he doesn't get the nomination, it shows that people are dissatisfied and are looking for alternatives. Maybe next election will prove to be as interesting as this one, no matter how it turns out. And maybe next election Hillary will finally be too old to run for president (one can hope).
Bernie is done. He has little chance of winning the democratic nominee and I he knows that. The only reason why Bernie is still in this is to send a message to the establishment that a good portion of Americans are upset. Like most things in American politics, being an idealist is the first step to losing.
The real question is where the Bernie vote goes come November. As far as I'm concerned, it's Trump and Hillary for the future presidential candidates. Neither are desirable.
I'd rather have Trump. Its a win-win. Either he burns capital hill and ends all the rampant corruption, or the establishment takes defense and everything stays the same for the next four years.
If American politics is a jungle and all the land had to be cleared, Bernie would the axe and Trump is a match. In an ideal world, one could take an axe to every tree. Never mind all the dangers within the jungle. Both get the job done, only one is more practical.
I apologize for the rant.....
If Bernie gets the same percentage of delegates for the rest of the race that he got last night:
If he performs one percent better:
Sanders needs to consistently perform marginally better than last night in order to win the nomination.
Which is equivalent to something like this:
I'd put a significant amount of money on Hillary taking the nomination. I don't let political bias interfere with my gambling odds.
I've got $2.88 in steam credit, A Super MNC Invite, and a Steam Trading Card Beta Access pass.
High stakes people, who thinks Bernie will win the nomination?
There's no question that she's the favorite; it's just that it is still semi-plausible that Bernie wins.
Who knows what'll happen, I do know that Bernie has certainly been gaining some momentum via social media. Seems to be the case more so after the Bernie VOX video uploaded.
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