Brexit

Discussion in 'Unrelated Discussion' started by proeleert, May 9, 2016.

  1. Gorbles

    Gorbles Post Master General

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    And anti-EU journalists have their own foibles. Nobody is without an angle here, and it's absolutely impossible for anyone to be anything close to objective. Even the facts are skewed by subjective interpretations.
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  2. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    This is one thing I think helped swing it to leave: both sides argued the same points, one drawing the opposite conclusion to the other.

    Leave lot: "our experts say the economy will be stronger when we leave"...

    Stay lot "no that's wrong, our experts say the economy will be ruined if we leave"...

    Problem with that, the two arguments cancel each other out (irrespective of the reality of it). That moves voters into 'vote with your gut'...
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  3. Clopse

    Clopse Post Master General

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    Wonder if there was a vote today how different the outcome would be. Would the media jump on the scaremongering bandwagon the way they have if there was a remain vote.

    All I see is super negative stories of both the financial and social implications this has already have. I just see the media/ social media side of the aftermath which paints an ugly picture of England. I'm saying England as that is all I have read about. Sad times indeed.
  4. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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  5. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    Economic models produce a result that is influenced by the assumptions you put in. Basically, if a pro-Brexit economist enters optimistic assumptions, and an anti-Brexit economist enters pessimistic assumptions into the exact same model, you can end up with two completely contrasting results.

    Economic forecasts are pretty useless on the whole, and at worst can be dangerously misleading. There are lies, damned lies and statistics, and I sincerely dislike it when politicians base entire swathes of policy off economic projections from economists with agendas.

    My general message to people at the moment is "wait a few weeks for everyone to untangle their underwear". At the moment no-one has a clear understanding of what's ahead, because we have politicians from around the world falling over each other to produce a posture on this. We have both of the UK's largest parties about to dissolve into leadership contests, EU politicians trying to rush everything, and the media are milking every last bit of controversy they can. Let everything calm down a bit, then let's take a calmer, more rational approach to things.

    There are a lot of positives to this which are being overlooked in favour of headline-promoting, click-generating controversy and speculation. It's a big change, and people are right to be wary of change. But let's let the politicians finish playing their games first.
  6. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    According to the forecasts i've seen, in either situation (brexit or not) the UK economy would grow.

    The biggest killer right now is simply uncertainty, especially since Cameron didn't trigger Article 50 as promised, the next PM is 4 months away and Brexit-politicians are backtracking on their promises while a political crisis is unfolding on both sides of the cabinet.

    In short, an actual *solution* is a long time away, and there are already experts who believe Article 50 may never be triggered. Cameron cleverly shoved the actual pain of the Article 50 to his successor.

    The second big killer is that the Referendum uncovered that the "united kingdom" isn't so very united, and can lead to further significant political instability and uncertainty.

    Long story short is that a lot of companies can decide to bail, cutting their losses for certainty.
  7. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    Eurosceptics and populists:
    1: Why can't we do the same?
    Pro-euro politicians:
    2: They voted yes? WTF?

    Eurosceptic citizens:
    1: Why can't we do the same?

    Pro-euro citizens:
    2: they voted yes? WTF?

    People reply according to what they believe. Big shock.
  8. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    OR Cameron decided that it was the Brexit campaign's problem now and he had no reason to solve that.

    Also, starting the procedure now puts a 2-year deadline on the negotiations, which obviously is in the leaver's disinterest, especially when you consider the Brexit campaign has no plan for this.

    I don't know what will happen there, independence shouldn't be weighed so lightly. But yea, i think it's likely that we will see some form of UK reform.
  9. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    I don't want to wait until Autumn. I think about a month is right. Basically, we need to assemble the negotiating team and assemble a brief for the negotiators so we know precisely what it is we're hoping to achieve once we trigger article 50. It also helps if both of our major Parliamentary parties aren't tearing themselves to bits when we start, so let's let them finish their little feuds first.
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  10. proeleert

    proeleert Post Master General

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  11. Devak

    Devak Post Master General

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    Racism is a symptom, not the cause. It doesn't help that Brexit is tainted by the immigration problem and racists see Brexit both as an excuse and as a signal of numerical superiority.
  12. MrTBSC

    MrTBSC Post Master General

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  13. tatsujb

    tatsujb Post Master General

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  14. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    > implying that those 4 people speak for all 17,410,742 who voted Leave.

    Come on, Pieter, you're better than that. Every popular movement has extremists and people who try to hijack it for their own means. They have rightly been damned by Remainers and Leavers alike because that sort of behaviour is completely unacceptable.
  15. cola_colin

    cola_colin Moderator Alumni

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    No matter how you look at it: A vote to leave a union of nations to do your thing is a rather nationalistic thing. No matter how many good other reasons you can come up with.
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  16. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    Exactly! Nationalist != racist
  17. cola_colin

    cola_colin Moderator Alumni

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    Yes, though I feel being nationalistic isn't a good thing either and a step towards racism. Alone it doesn't reach it, but it's that direction.
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  18. cwarner7264

    cwarner7264 Moderator Alumni

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    That's your view, and you are entitled to it. However it's one that I strongly disagree with.

    I'd go out on a limb and say that you support LGBT pride? That's a celebration of people who are born a certain way. Why should national pride be taboo by comparison? By that logic, LGBT pride is a step towards hatred too.

    It is possible to be proud of something without taking a negative view of others.
  19. cola_colin

    cola_colin Moderator Alumni

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    I disagree with that analogy. LGBT pride is about recognizing some form of wiring in your brain that controls your behavior in some way. Nationalistic pride is about something wishy-washy like a "nation" that you happen to be born in. It is not an inherent property of you yourself, but rather just a circumstance you have been thrown into. You've not achieved anything yourself, you just play the proud son of the rich parents.
    LGBT pride is something I would think is about pride in recognizing your true self and standing to it, even in the face of critics. It's a true achievement to be proud of I think.

    I guess in theory you can be proud that your nation does good stuff and therefore try to do good stuff yourself to fit in but in reality I feel most "nationalism" revolves around "we're great because we happen to be born here and you are bad because you have been born over there".

    My view probably is painted by education here in Germany. Nazi-Germany is a big topic in multiple subjects through many years of school, painting a very very dark picture of nationalism.
  20. cdrkf

    cdrkf Post Master General

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    Last edited: June 28, 2016
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